Usa preparano lista classificata di 25 paesi da invadere

US prepares classified watch-list of 25 unstable countries
By Guy Dinmore in Washington
Published: March 29 2005 03:00 | Last updated: March 29 2005 03:00
The US intelligence community is drawing up a secret watch-list of 25 countries where instability might precipitate US intervention, according to officials in charge of a new office set up to co-ordinate planning for nation-building and conflict prevention.

The list will be drawn up and revised every six months by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which synthesises intelligence for strategic planning, according to Carlos Pascual, head of the newly formed office of reconstruction and stabilisation.

Conceived out of the acknowledged failure of postwar reconstruction efforts in Iraq, the new State Department office amounts to recognition by the Bush administration that it needs to get better at nation-building - a concept it once scorned as social work disguised as foreign policy.

But its small budget - $17m (€13m, £9m) requested from Congress this year and $124m in fiscal 2006 - reflects a lack of commitment, according to advisers. They say the administration remains deeply divided about the merits of nation-building and the international institutions that do it.

Mr Pascual told a two-day conference last week on Reconstructing and Stabilising War-Torn States, organised by the independent US Institute of Peace, that the NIC would identify countries of "greatest instability and risk", to clarify priorities and allocate resources.

The watch-list was classified, according to a spokesperson. However, another official gave the example of conflict-torn Nepal, saying it was the subject of a special study on fragile states by USAID, the government aid agency. USAID declined to comment.

Although Mr Pascual, a former ambassador, will act as the lead co-ordinator between civilian agencies and the Pentagon, officials stressed creation of the new office did not mean the US was bent on nation-building through military action.

While internal arguments still rage about how to deal with Iran, for example, senior members of the administration would prefer to see regime change brought about by opposition groups rather than by direct US military intervention, according to advisers who spoke privately.

Mr Pascual said conflict prevention and postwar reconstruction of failed and failing states had become a "mainstream foreign policy challenge" because of the dangers of terrorist groups and the availability of weapons of mass destruction.

His goals were to prevent conflict, but also to prepare to react quickly when the US military had to intervene. Post-conflict work would focus on creating laws and institutions of a "market democracy", he said.

Planning would include forming a "reserve corps" of specialist civilian teams and devising reconstruction contracts in advance with private companies and NGOs.

James Dobbins, former special US envoy to Afghanistan, welcomed the new office, saying the administration was beginning to learn from its failures.

Nicholas Burns, the newly appointed under-secretary of state for political affairs, played down the military aspect and linked the new office with the "transformational diplomacy" advocated by Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state.

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