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l'Olanda si schiera con gli USA
by Stratfor.com Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2003 at 2:11 PM mail:

Dopo il veto francese e belga agli aiuti alla Turchia, intesa come supporto logistico alla guerra americana nel nord dell'Iraq, l'Olanda si e' schierata.

Il governo de L'Aja ha deciso di inviare missili antimissile Patriot in
Turchia, come desiderato dagli americani e senza seguire le procedure
dell'alleanza atlantica.
E' una forzatura politica di grosso rilievo indice del livello della
spaccatura tra paesi europei, e tra l'asse franco-tedesco e gli Usa, sulla
questione irakena.
Quando i paesi storicamente poco militarizzati come l'Olanda si schierano č
il segnale di un profondo rimescolamento delle alleanze e delle opzioni
strategiche.


Dutch Boldness Signals Trouble in NATO
Feb 07, 2003

Summary

In a move that puts the spotlight on Germany, the Dutch government agreed
Feb. 7 to transfer some NATO hardware under its control directly to Turkey.
Officials in Amsterdam have seen something develop that prodded them to
action, and the normally placid Dutch do not spook easily.

Analysis

Dutch government officials said Feb. 7 that The Netherlands has agreed to
ship its Patriot missile batteries to southern Turkey, in response to a
direct request from Ankara. Dutch sources say the batteries will be en route
early next week.

The move is a diplomatic blow from the mild-mannered Netherlands to both
France and Germany -- and perhaps a sign of a serious split in the NATO
alliance.

Belgium, France and Germany have blocked American and Turkish efforts to
relocate military assets to Turkey in preparation for a war against Iraq.
NATO's other 16 members support the transfer. Key assets in question are
Patriot missile batteries stored in Germany and The Netherlands.

To avoid a diplomatic blowout and a formal schism in the alliance of NATO's
decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council put the issue on "silence
procedure." Silence procedure means the issue is tabled and that, barring a
specific veto from a member, the proposal will be enacted automatically Feb.
10.

That's where the issue was left at the end of Feb. 6. It would be
unprecedented for Belgium, France or Germany to veto the proposal; no NATO
country ever has denied a direct request for assistance from another NATO
ally.

And yet the Dutch felt it was necessary to pre-empt the silence procedure's
culmination and place a very focused magnifying glass on the Germans.

Amsterdam would have done this for only two reasons.

First, the Dutch government is angry with Paris and Berlin for forcing a
European diplomatic split. Before Jan. 30, Paris and Berlin opposed U.S.
efforts against Iraq and spoke as if they represented all of Europe. On Jan.
30, however, eight European leaders submitted an open letter to global
newspapers affirming their support -- for Washington. The Netherlands was
approached about the letter, but declined to sign for fear of triggering a
split in Europe. The Dutch assumption was most likely that Paris and Berlin
would get the hint and stop pretending to speak for the EU. They didn't. Now
the Dutch feel they have to put in their two cents to make it clear that
they stand with the United States as well.

Second, and more ominous, would be if the Dutch discovered that the Germans
actually were planning to withhold assistance. In that case, the Dutch move
is intended to focus attention sternly upon Berlin. The Netherlands'
physical security is based on an amicable German-American relationship, and
Amsterdam will do anything it can to help head off surprise negative
developments in that relationship.

Regardless of which assessment is correct, the Dutch are not known for bold
diplomatic actions that might irritate -- much less embarrass -- anyone.
They are Europe's quintessential voice of calm, compassion and consensus.
The fact that The Netherlands took this step at all signals that the split
in Europe is disturbingly real and equally deep. Officials in The Hague also
fear, most likely correctly, that the split will poison internal European
relations for months after the Iraq issue is settled.


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