Se ne vanno i siriani, e cosa temono i libanesi? La mancanza di sicurezza! Come si combatte questo timore? Comprando un Kalashnikov! ......che infatti č un articolo che va a ruba. astenersi aspiranti stregoni.

Gun mentality rules in Beirut
By Lucy Ashton

BEIRUT - Blank gun licenses are now easy to acquire in Beirut. "The Ministry of Defense is handing them out by the thousand," said a prominent Lebanese businessman. "See, I have one here." A usual gun permit bears the name and photo of the licensee covered with an official stamp. However, this permit has evidently been validated before the picture was added - the ink stamp blurs beneath the little passport photo, not over it. "Many people have completely blank documents. They are easy to obtain, you just need to ask."

Such permits allow a holder to buy any weapon available, from pistol to submachine-gun. "AKs are most popular," said Joseph, a gun seller. "They are cheap, only US$100." It is also possible to buy guns on the black market. The best range can be found in the Bekaa Valley, particularly in the ancient city of Baalbek, whose streets are now decked with the portraits of Hezbollah martyrs who have died fighting against Israel.

The trade in weapons quickened last week as battered trucks carrying 2,000 Syrian troops drove out of Lebanon, adding to the 4,000 who had already left; 8,000 remain in Lebanon. Still, the prompt removal of Syrian forces and the announcement of caretaker Prime Minister Omar Karami that he cannot form a cabinet are stoking fears of a security vacuum. So what has been a largely peaceful Lebanese society since the end of the civil war in 1990 is rearming - just in case.

The people of this state first identify themselves by nationality, that of Lebanese, then by religion and then by political group. With 17 groups in Lebanon, each with their own leaders and allegiances, political division is inevitable, and there is not too much weight behind any one party.

But if people are forced to identify themselves by religious group - Muslim versus Christian - then the careful threads that have restitched Lebanese society back together since the end of the war will tighten and snap. And this strain is exactly what someone is trying to bring about.

The three bombs that have so far exploded in Christian areas are intended to heighten suspicions between the two religious groups. The bombs are being placed with restraint for now, their locations and timing carefully chosen in commercial areas at night so that casualties are few. They are warnings, but the city is waiting for worse.

Some Lebanese think the bombings are Syrian sour grapes, retaliation for being kicked out of Beirut after the assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri last month. Others believe that the Syrians want to foment trouble to justify their continued control over Beirut. Pro-Syrian Lebanese say it is a Christian group planting the bombs to rally their fractious fellows to a single religious cause. This, they say, is why the bombs are not planted to kill, but explode in almost deserted commercial streets at night. So far the only casualties have been Indians and Sri Lankans who guard the buildings at night.

To cause real chaos would not be hard: the killing of one of the long-established figureheads of one of the Maronite, Shi'ite or Druze factions would be enough. Hariri was a prominent Sunni, but in truth nobody liked him that much - he did not carry the emotions of the Lebanese. He was a respected businessman and politician, though often described as corrupt. But to kill Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, that would be a different matter. All hell would break loose as the Druze are a well-gelled group. For this reason, he is buffered under heavy guard.

Prime Minister Karami's failure to form a government to oversee elections has added to the uncertainty. He has already stepped down twice in a month: first he was forced to resign after the killing of Hariri, then reappointed by parliament to form a government to unify the anti-Syrian opposition and the Damascus loyalists. Now the opposition has refused to join such a government until Hariri's assignation is fully investigated, those responsible dismissed and all the Syrian troops and spies have left the country. Pro-Syrian politicians are obviously none too keen on such conditions. No one quite knows how to break this stalemate.

Talking to a top pro-Syrian security official, he said peace was far away, it will not happen before the end of summer. He said democracy could not work in Lebanon, the country was too divided, it needed a single firm hand running Beirut. The city could expect not one or two bombs, he said, but hundreds in the coming months. Whether such a statement came from a genuine concern for the security of Lebanon, or was a veiled threat, was unclear.

Lucy Ashton is a freelance journalist based in Amman, Jordan.